Minefields abound at the tight end position for fantasy football, from the game's aging stars to the position's typically slow acclimation to the NFL. Still, after a string of disappointments from early-round tight ends in recent seasons, tight ends are coming off the board at a relative discount this year.
That doesn't mean choosing your path at TE is simple. That's why we've gathered three of Fantasy Life's top TE gurus to offer their insights on the tight end market and their bold predictions for the position in 2024.
Which tight end are you higher on than the market and why?
Jake Ferguson | Dallas Cowboys
Last year, in his second season overall and first as the team's No. 1 TE, Ferguson was No. 1 at the position in end zone targets (12) and red zone targets (23), No. 3 in play-action targets (30) and No. 5 in routes (573). So Ferguson has already shown that he's capable of earning top-tier usage, and he could get even more of it in 2024 if he reasonably continues to improve in his third year.
Helping Ferguson are a few factors. First, the Cowboys last season were No. 1 in scoring (29.9 points per game), and they've been top-four in each of the past three years. They're likely to have one of the league's best offenses in 2024. Also, the Cowboys could pass at a high rate given that their RB room is now once again led by the remains ofEzekiel Elliott.
Finally, the team has downgraded at No. 3 WR in moving fromMichael Gallup toJalen Tolbert, so Ferguson could build upon his 19% target rate and 17% target share from last year.
Often drafted as the TE10, Ferguson has a TE12 floor and TE3 ceiling.
— Matthew Freedman
Evan Engram | Jacksonville Jaguars
Engram caught 114 of 143 (!) targets last season for 963 yards and four scores. If anything, the 29-year-old talent was a bitunluckyin the scoring department and therefore could be leaned on more in 2024 afterCalvin Ridley took his talents to Nashville.
Jaguars HC Doug Pederson has a history of enabling high-end fantasy TEs in his seven years as a head coach:
- 2016, Zach Ertz: TE3
- 2017, Ertz: TE3
- 2018, Ertz: TE2
- 2019, Ertz: TE4
- 2020, Dallas Goedert: TE9
- 2022, Evan Engram: TE7
- 2023, Engram: TE4
New additionsGabe Davis andBrian Thomas Jr. certainly will be plenty involved, but neither WR profiles as a candidate for the sort of underneath and intermediate targets that Engram (5-yard average target depth) lived on in 2023.
Dec 31, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram (17) runs the ball past Carolina Panthers safety Xavier Woods (25) during the second quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports
You don't need more than one hand to count the number of TEs with a realistic chance to lead their offense in total targets, yet youdoneed more than one hand to count the number of TEs likely to go ahead of Engram in fantasy drafts. Quite frankly, I don't get it.
— Ian Hartitz
Trey McBride | Arizona Cardinals
Back in the day, you'd have to spend a second- or third-round pick on a TE who did what McBride did in 2023, yet he's regularly available in the fifth or sixth round of 2024 drafts.
What more does this guy have to do to earn some respect? He finished last season with 106 targets (sixth in the league), 81 receptions (fifth) and 825 yards (seventh). What's even crazier about those stats is that he didn't even become a full-time player in the offense until Week 8 because the team was still stubbornly usingZach Ertz.
McBride's advanced stats are even more impressive. He had the highest targets per route run rate for TEs in the entire league (26%), which speaks to how much attention he commanded when he was on the field.
I know people are concerned aboutMarvin Harrison Jr. eating into his target share, but there's enough room for two alphas in this offense after the departure ofMarquise Brown. If anything, the addition of Harrison should be aboonfor McBride's fantasy prospects. He'll face fewer double-teams, and the Cardinals should enjoy even more trips to the red zone in 2024 with another elite playmaker in the offense.
— Peter Overzet
Which TE are you lower on than the market (i.e. a “Do Not Draft!” player) and why?
Travis Kelce | Kansas City Chiefs
I would never say something as stupid as, "Do not draft Kelce." But I might say something like, "It's probably OK to be underweight on a highly hyped TE who turns 35 years old in October and is coming off his least efficient NFL season." That sounds like something I'd say.
The Chiefs are likely to bounce back this year, but in 2023 they were No. 15 in scoring (21.8 points per game), and there's a decent chance they won't jump all the way back into the top five. On top of that, Kelce could face the most target competition of his career, as Marquise Brown,Rashee Rice andXavier Worthyconstitute the best WR trio the Chiefs have had under HC Andy Reid.
With his advancing age and acceptable-but-not-exceptional circ*mstances, Kelce still has the upside to finish as the TE1, but he no longer has the astronomical league-winning ceiling he once owned, and his fantasy floor is far lower than his TE3 average draft position, as there's no telling when his level of play will drastically fall off.
Again, Kelce shouldn't receive the full fade: He's still a top-three TE. But going light on him is a precautionary measure that's rightfully prudent, and he's certainly not a player to reach for in fantasy drafts.
— Matthew Freedman
T.J. Hockenson | Minnesota Vikings
Hockenson is entering his age-27 season and is coming off a regular season that featured career-high marks in receptions (95) and receiving yards (960) despite missing two games. He would be in the top-three conversation … if it wasn't for his ACL tear on Christmas Eve.
Multiple doctors in the fantasy football community believe Hockenson could miss half of the 2024 season, followed by an overall performance dip until 2025. And that's before we factor in the reality that the offense isn't guaranteed to be nearly as productive with eitherJ.J. McCarthy (a rookie) orSam Darnold (a Sam Darnold) under center.
Nov 12, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) celebrates his touchdown against the New Orleans Saints in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Don't hate the player, hate the ADP. Hockenson would be a fine enough later-round option with the potential to pay off in the second half of the season, but using a pick inside the top 10 rounds on someone not guaranteed to suit up before November doesn't seem too wise — and that's before considering the likelihood his efficiency and volume also decline.
— Ian Hartitz
David Njoku | Cleveland Browns
Njoku was a revelation down the stretch in 2023. In Weeks 13 through 17, he averaged nearly nine targets per game. During that window, he scored four TDs and eclipsed 100 receiving yards twice.
And do you know who his QB was for those games? Yes,Joe Flacco.
And do you know who isn't going to be his QB in 2024? Yes again, Flacco.
The Browns, who have fallen victim to the classic "sunk cost fallacy" trap, plan to trot outDeshaun Watson again in 2024 despite Watson looking awful in limited action in both 2022 (79.1 QBR rating) and '23 (84.3 QBR rating).
Njoku's splits with Watson are concerning:
* Per-game average in five games with Watson: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 35.2 yards
* Per-game average in 11 games w/o Watson: 8.8 targets, 5.5 receptions, 64.1 yards
Further complicating things for Njoku: There's even more target competition this year with WR Jerry Jeudy in the fold.
Njoku is a talented player who has been able to thrive with Flacco at QB and when there is little target competition. Neither of those things will be true in 2024, making him an easy fade.
— Peter Overzet
What is your bold prediction for the TE position in 2024?
Bills' Dalton Kincaid set up for monster season
This offseason, the Bills parted ways with WRsStefon DiggsandGabe Davis and replaced them withCurtis Samuel andKeon Coleman.
Samuel and Coleman both have upside … but Samuel has never had more than 851 yards receiving in any of his seven NFL seasons, and Coleman is a rookie with questionable athleticism (4.61-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds).
In other words: The Bills have no proven No. 1 WR on the roster.
So here's a bold prediction: In 2024, Kincaid will lead not only the Bills in receiving but also all TEs in the NFL.
Last year as a part-time player who split work with TEDawson Knox, the rookie Kincaid had at least a 70% snap rate in just five games, but in those contests — despite playing alongside Diggs and Davis — he averaged 7.3 targets for 57.3 yards receiving per game.
This year a 70% snap rate is likely to be Kincaid's weekly floor, he should be better equipped to earn targets in his second season and Samuel and Coleman aren't the target competitors that Diggs and Davis were.
As wild as this sounds, Kincaid has a legit chance to be the No. 1 pass catcher for QB Josh Allen, and that could put him in line for as many as 150 targets and 1,200 yards receiving, which would likely lead the position in 2024.
— Matthew Freedman
Raiders rookie Brock Bowers fails to post a top-15 finish among TEs
This doesn't mean Bowers won't have a great NFL career. After all, justthree first-year TEs have produced TE1-level fantasy numbers (PPR) over the past 10 years. Kudos to 2017Evan Engram, 2021Kyle Pitts and 2023Sam LaPorta, who were able to parlay their own God-given talent with triple-digit target workloads and veteran QBs capable of helping them produce.
Bowers certainly checks the talent box of that equation — it's everything else that's the problem.
Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) runs after a catch during the third quarter as Auburn Tigers take on Georgia Bulldogs at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023.
First, there's the simple matter of getting on the field. While it's admittedly fun to assume Bowers andMichael Mayer can be this generation's Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez (on the field), the Raiders ranked 27th in total plays with two-TE formations in 2023. And only the Dolphins (49) and Broncos (60) had fewer total targets to their TEs than the Raiders (70). It'd make sense if these variables change with the presence of Bowers, but both have a LONG way to go.
Let's say the potentially run-heavy Raiders ultimately feature Bowers in a near every-down role, and he also manages to earn triple-digit targets while working as the third banana to WRsDavante Adams andJakobi Meyers. Are we supposed to feel optimistic about the upside of a passing game led byGardner Minshew orAidan O'Connell? These were literally the NFL's bottom-two QBs in completion percentage over expected last season.
Look for the talented 21-year-old to have a long and productive career in the NFL, but temper your expectations for him in 2024.
— Ian Hartitz
Elite TEs continue to dominate
Travis Kelce has long been a fixture in Round 1, and fellow TEs such asMark Andrews,GeorgeKittle andDarren Waller have been selected in Rounds 2 and 3 in recent seasons.
Yet for some reason, drafters are completely swearing off elite TEs in the early rounds in 2024, with none of them being taken in the first three rounds of most drafts.
This is a classic case of recency bias. In 2023, Kelce flopped in the fantasy regular season. Andrews didn't pay off his ADP. Kittle's production was sporadic. AndSam LaPorta, one of the few league-winners at the TE position, emerged from the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts.
But a single season is an incredibly small sample size, and the value of an elite TE on your fantasy team remains just as important as it always has.
I'm betting we get a resurgence from the elite TEs in 2024, and all of the best fantasy squads will feature at least one of these names:SamLaPorta,TravisKelce,TreyMcBride,MarkAndrews,DaltonKincaid,KylePitts andGeorgeKittle.
Best of all, you don't need to spend a premium pick on any of these guys. They'll be available in Rounds 4 and later, which allows you to load up on multiple elite WRs early (or a bell-cow RB) and still get a huge edge on your opponents at the TE position with a mid-round pick.
Try not to leave a draft without one of these guys; the elite TE cohort will never be this cheap again.
— Peter Overzet
